31- May-2024″ The ruling African National Congress party in the lead with over 60 percent of the votes counted. However, it is falling short of a majority
The Democratic Alliance sits second while former President Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party currently third.
If the ANC does not receive more than 50 percent, it will need to make a deal with other parties to form a coalition government.
Still awaiting results from large cities
Sanusha Naidu, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, a South African think tank, has spoken to Al Jazeera from the election results headquarters in Johannesburg, where she is monitoring the results coming in.
“For me right now, I think the biggest message I am taking out from what I’m seeing on the [results] board is … the metros haven’t come in in certain of the big provinces. We haven’t seen the metro in Durban come in, and that is the second largest registered number of voters in the province. Gauteng, the largest number of registered voters in the country – those metros have not come in,” she said.
“So I think some of the political parties like the ANC at this point are really, really hoping that [results from the metropolitan areas] will sway it a little beyond the 42 percent and then move it closer to that 45 percent, which gives them a little bit of wiggle room in terms of what kind of [coalition] discussions they can have.
Follow our live tracker for all the latest results from South Africa’s elections.
Early results left investors ‘swinging between anxiety’
Bloomberg is reporting that early results from South Africa, where the ANC looks set to fail at winning the majority vote, has left “investors swinging between anxiety over the different permutations that coalition may take”.
It reported that ahead of the vote, it seemed that the governing party would be much closer to the 50-percent mark that would have enabled it to join hands with a small party.
However, after half of the votes counted, ANC’s tally is hovering just under the 41-percent mark.
“We remain in something of a no-man’s-land at present, with the still-sizable uncertainty over the ANC’s final tally keeping most options for the next government on the table,” Ivailo Vesselinov, chief strategist at Emso Asset Management, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.
Who are the potential coalition partners?
Based on the current results with a little more than 60 percent of the votes announced, the ANC may have no choice but to seek support from one of its larger rivals: the DA, MK or EFF.
The price of a deal with either of those would likely be significant policy concessions by the ANC as well as the offer of some senior government positions.
Investors and the business community would prefer a deal with the DA, which has received 23 percent of the votes so far and is seen as more market-friendly.
However, the ideological divide between the ANC and the leading opposition party is so wide as to make such a deal difficult.
Led by Julius Malema, a former leader of the ANC’s youth wing, the EFF may be a more natural fit for the ANC, but relations are tense between Malema and some ANC factions.
The EFF, which has 9.5 percent of the vote, said in April it would partner with the ANC if it got the powerful post of finance minister.
Nobody is going to resign, says ANC official
Despite the disappointing elections so far, ANC’s Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane said he would not resign.
“Nobody is going to resign. Collectively, all of us, we still are confident that he [Ramaphosa] has to remain the president of the ANC,” she told reporters at the results centre. “The leadership of the ANC will meet, structures of the ANC will be consulted. For now we are not talking to anybody.”
The ANC had won every previous national election since the historic 1994 vote that ended white minority rule, but over the last decade, South Africans have watched the economy stagnate, unemployment and poverty climb and infrastructure crumble, leading to regular power outages.
With over 60 percent of votes declared, ANC sits at the top but just under the 42 percent mark, followed by the DA at 23 percent.
The current result is about 15 percentage points lower than the ANC’s last election win
Could Zuma emerge as kingmaker in the elections?
Reporting from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Ahead of the polls, many predicted the ANC will lose its parliamentary majority and will likely have to rule as part of a coalition.
Meanwhile, Zuma’s new MK has been gaining in the polls. This has led some analysts to suggest Zuma may be in a position to be kingmaker – with the MK possibly becoming the majority party in his home province, KwaZulu-Natal.
However, other analysts are less convinced that the former leader has enough widespread support.
Read the story here
How is the president elected?
A reminder that South Africans do not directly vote for the president.
Instead, they elect 400 members of the National Assembly, which then selects the president by a simple majority – 201 or more votes.
If the ANC secures more than 50 percent of the vote, President Ramaphosa will most likely be re-elected as president to serve a second and final five-year term
How many people have voted in this election?
Out of a population of about 62 million, 27.79 million people were registered to vote.
According to the IEC, turnout was 58.58 percent which means about 16.2 million turned up to vote.
In 2019, 17.6 million people turned out to vote.
Current National Assembly
The lower house of South Africa’s Parliament currently consists of 400 members from 14 political parties. The seats are allocated proportionally based on the votes each party received in the 2019 elections:
- ANC: 230 seats (57.5 percent)
- DA: 84 seats (21 percent)
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): 44 seats (11 percent)
- Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP): 14 seats (3.5 percent)
Members of 10 other parties hold the remaining 28 seats.
