25-Aug-2023- News Agencies
What’s next for security in Somalia after the AU mission ends?
The Somali government believes its army will be ready for the 2024 withdrawal of AU forces, but others aren’t so sure.
In a dusty military compound in Somalia’s coastal town of Adale, soldiers from the African Union peacekeeping force and the Somali National Army gathered in a makeshift building.
The AU commander gave signed documents to his Somali counterpart, marking the handing over of the military base, approximately 150km from Mogadishu, to the Somali Army.
Since the beginning of June, similar ceremonies have been taking place at military bases across Somalia. These ceremonies come as the African Union (AU) is winding down its peacekeeping mission in the country, leading to concerns about what will happen when AU soldiers finally depart at the end of 2024.
Established in 2007, the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), previously known as the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), gradually drew an estimated 22,000 troops from Uganda, Burundi and neighbouring Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti
When peacekeepers were first deployed, the al-Qaeda-linked armed group controlled nearly all territories in south-central Somalia.
Working with Somali security forces, the AU soldiers pushed the fighters into rural areas, and as it stands, al-Shabab mainly controls only those.
However, the combined efforts to defeat the group over the years have killed thousands of civilians and now, as the phasing out of ATMIS begins, there has been a debate about its success – or lack thereof.
“Though we appreciate AU force’s efforts, back then when they were deployed, we were hopeful that they would bring stability across the country since civilians, especially the women and children, have mostly suffered the conflict, but unfortunately, nothing much has changed,” said Batulo Ahmed, the chair of Somali Women Association.
Al-Shabab, one of Africa’s deadliest armed groups, has recently been avoiding active combat with the joint forces but instead adopted night combat tactics and increased its use of suicide bombing. The group also maintains limited but effective administrative control over local populations in south-central Somalia.
According to Omar Mahmood, a researcher at the International Crisis Group focusing on Somalia, ATMIS has had mixed success.
“The mission’s main tasks were to essentially defeat al-Shabab and support the political process. We can say they have liberated major towns but struggled to secure rural areas,” Mahmood told Al Jazeera.
Somalia’s defence minister did not respond to Al Jazeera’s requests for comment. But the country’s national security adviser, Hussein Maalim, who is involved in the transition process, in July this year told state media that Mogadishu is optimistic about changing the guard
However, not everyone is as confident.
Over three decades, the Horn of Africa nation has been lacking a professional army due to prolonged conflict, and there is a widespread belief that it is a long way from having a truly effective national force.
“Somalia’s national army are in no position to take over responsibilities in the foreseeable future, the main reason being the lack of an agreed national security architecture, and when there is consensus, we lack a unified national army, as the regular army is now mostly clan militias,” Mohamed Mubarak, chairman of the Hiraal Institute, a Mogadishu-based security think tank, told Al Jazeera.
“Somalia needs a professional military, ability to pay for it by itself, and political stability,” Mubarak added.
However, the winding down of the mission has created uncertainty about whether Somalia can build an effective country-wide security presence, and its limited resources are also a key factor.