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18″ April “2023,
Plumes of smoke fill Khartoum’s sky as Sudan’s armed forces battle the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, for control of the country and its capital. The fighting, which erupted late last week, has killed at least 185 people, according to the United Nations special representative for Sudan, leaving critical infrastructure — from Khartoum’s airport to hospitals to water supplies for residents — damaged.
But the intensifying fighting could also cast a cloud over the broader Horn of Africa region, experts and top diplomats are warning
On Monday, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for an immediate ceasefire, adding that Washington was concerned at the potential risk the unrest poses to the region. Also on Monday, United Nations chief Antonio Guterres warned that any further escalation could be devastating for the region.
Regional worries
The region is already grappling with ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia, South Sudan and Somalia that have left tens of thousands of people dead and have displaced millions more, while climate change has also left its deadly mark, twith repeated sub-par rainy seasons exacerbating a humanitarian crisis.
Experts believe a full-blown civil war in Sudan could make things worse — from a new refugee crisis to water woes to meddling by powers from outside the region.
“Were Sudan to descend into civil war then the entire Horn of Africa region will be affected,” Matt Bryden, a strategic adviser at Sahan Research, a think tank focusing on politics and security in the Horn of Africa, told Al Jazeera.
Alarmed, heads of state from the regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) held a virtual meeting on Sunday and called for the “immediate cessation of hostilities”.
The bloc announced that South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir, Kenya’s William Ruto and Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh would visit Khartoum “at the earliest possible time to reconcile the conflicting groups”.
So far, however, these leaders “have been unable to travel to Khartoum due to the ongoing fighting between the warring parties”, Ahmed Soliman, a senior research fellow at the Africa programme at the London-based Chatham House, pointed out. “There is huge concern among leaders in the Horn of Africa” about the “prospects for regional spill-over”, he said
Another refugee crisis?
Sudan shares borders with seven countries. Five of those – Libya, the Central African Republic (CAR), South Sudan, Ethiopia and Chad – are already theatres of ongoing armed conflict. Egypt and Eritrea are Sudan’s other immediate neighbours. “All [these countries] will be heavily affected,” said Bryden.
As of September, Ethiopia, the region’s most populous country, had more than two million internally displaced people, an outcome of natural disasters and a brutal conflict between the country’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that governed the Tigray region. Ethiopia also hosts nearly a million refugees from Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea. Meanwhile, Chad is home to 370,000 Sudanese refugees.
Russia, Turkey and the UAE have all intervened actively in the Libyan civil war, through a mix of weapons supplies, political cover and diplomacy involving the warring groups. The mineral-fuelled conflict in the CAR has also attracted Russia’s Wagner Group, whose fighters have lined up alongside government forces against rebels.
Fighting continues in Sudan hours after ceasefire was to begin
These concerns — that the clashes in Sudan could further turn the region into a playground for global and regional powers to extend their influence — were evident when African Union leaders met for emergency talks on Sunday. In a communique the body released after holding a meeting in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, the bloc warned against any external interference that could complicate the situation.
“We have not received any indications here that there’s been a halt in the fighting,” United Nations spokesman Stephane Dujarric told a news briefing in New York.
The conflict between Sudan’s military leader and his deputy on Sudan’s ruling council erupted four days ago, derailing an internationally backed plan for a transition to a civilian democracy four years after the fall of former leader Omar al-Bashir to mass protests and two years after a military coup.
The fighting has triggered what the UN has described as a humanitarian catastrophe, including the near collapse of the health system. The organisation’s World Food Programme suspended operations after three of its employees were killed.
At least 185 people have died in the conflict, according to the UN